The ZeroSum Market First Report is the automotive industry’s first source to predict month-end vehicle movement, providing vital supply and demand trend data to automotive marketers and dealers. ZeroSum uses predictive modeling to accurately estimate new vehicle inventory, pricing trends, and market share.
Quick-Access:
1. Summary: What You Need to Know
2. New Vehicles Retail Outlook
3. Used Vehicles Retail Outlook
4. Electric Vehicles Retail Outlook
ZeroSum predicts that by the end of September, new vehicle inventory will be up 16.69% from the start of August while used vehicle inventory will be down 1.15%. New car prices fell 0.97% in September to an average of $47,961 while used car prices fell 0.83% to $33,957.
As inventory remained relatively low over the first seven months of the year, Reuters reports that automotive ad spend fell 4% year-over-year and was 12.7% lower than in the same period in 2019. This is because despite high demand, there simply were not enough cars available to sell. Now, we are seeing the biggest rise in new vehicle inventory since the first month of the year. This means that things could soon change for auto dealers.
ZeroSum’s Take: What You Need to Know
New vehicle inventory has increased substantially this month, leading to lower prices for both new and used cars.
Here are your key takeaways:
- Sell the inventory you have. With more, new inventory being produced, showing strong sales can help win priority allocation from your manufacturer.
- Purchase strategically. When used car prices fall, it’s crucial to monitor price trends and buy used cars at the right time.
- Price competitively. Ensure you stay competitive in the market by adjusting to price trends.
New Vehicles Retail Outlook
At the beginning of September, new vehicle inventory saw the biggest jump since January 2022, gaining 11.1% over the beginning of August. By the end of this month, ZeroSum predicts new inventory will be 1,212,174 which would be a 16.69% increase from the start of August. With the new vehicle inventory increasing so significantly, dealers will need to maintain strong sales to win allocation of these new cars from their OEMs.
After increasing slightly last month, in September, new vehicle prices fell 0.97% to an average of $47,961, only $31 above MSRP. This is the closest new vehicle prices have been to MSRP since January 2022. If new vehicle inventory continues to rise, prices will fall. Dealers should keep a close eye on prices to ensure they are pricing competitively in their markets.
Used Vehicles Retail Outlook
While new vehicle inventory rose in September, used vehicle inventory declined 0.92% from the start of August. By the end of the month, ZeroSum forecasts used vehicle inventory will decrease further to 1,667,967. Dealers should continue to turn the used inventory they do have as quickly as possible to hit sales targets.
Following a small increase last month, in September, used vehicle prices decreased by 0.83% to $33,957 on average. As new vehicle inventory rises, used car prices tend to fall since shoppers have more options. Dealers should focus on monitoring price trends and purchasing used vehicles strategically during this time.
Electric Vehicles Retail Outlook
After decreasing for three consecutive months, pure electric vehicle inventory increased substantially, up 10.33% in September. At the same time, hybrid inventory remained consistent, increasing only 0.46%.
This month, we’re continuing to see strong indications of electric vehicles going mainstream in the near future. The parent company of GasBuddy, an app that provides insight on fuel prices has announced the launch of a new app, ChargeBuddy. The new app will offer similar features to its fuel-focused counterpart, helping users locate EV chargers, monitor prices, compare amenities, and more.
Also this month, Ford CEO Jim Farley met with dealers in Las Vegas to discuss Ford’s plans as the company moves into the new EV era. At the meeting, Farley told dealers that, by October 31, they must become a Model E Certified Elite dealership, a Model E Certified dealership, or stop selling Model E vehicles by January 2024. For Ford dealers, this means they will have to quickly decide if they are in or out of the EV movement.
About ZeroSum Market First Report
ZeroSum’s Market First Report is based on ZeroSum’s retail vehicle movement and pricing indices, powered by real-time data gathered using ZeroSum’s data-driven marketing platform MarketAI. The platform brings together vast amount of data, including all available light vehicle inventory in the U.S., to help improve marketing performance. MarketAI allows dealers to analyze their market in real-time, using sales conversion rates, market turn rates, days’ supply, and competitive inventory.
About ZeroSum
ZeroSum is a leader in software, marketing, and data. Powered by its SaaS platform, MarketAI, ZeroSum is simplifying and modernizing automotive marketing by leveraging artificial intelligence, data, and scaling ability to acquire new customers. ZeroSum is the first and only company that matches consumer demand with automotive data in real time. For more information, visit https://www.zerosum.ai/.
For media inquiries, please contact ldagg@zerosum.ai.
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